As a child, I had been happy and innocent. We all know arrogant and self-centered people who succeeded despite everything we know about human relationships and how the society works. Truth is, just because you ask for the odds to be in your favor doesn’t mean it will happen. “May the odds be ever in your favor,” a favorite quote in the famous Hunger Games series. The odds just stack up the way they do, and we’re helpless to control it. So when saying, “May the odds be ever in your favor,” it doesn’t matter. Sometimes, you’ll want to risk it all – pushing the average as far possible to the right; sometimes, you’ll want the variance to be lower, and you can take actions to make the outcome meaningfully more predictable. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. That’s the choice you’re making when you concentrate on reducing the variance, not just the mean. The truth of the matter is that at one point or another, things will go horribly wrong, but there will be times when things go so right. Tech blogs talk about them all the time: get customer feedback early; iterate, test assumptions; network. To identify those, let’s think of a few reasons why startups just fall of the face of the Earth: Activities that reduce the chance of these disaster scenarios reduce the variance: Note that the variance has two “sides” – the negative and the positive; you reduce both the chance of disaster and the chance of going far higher than the predicted average. Armed with this new variance tool, you can concentrate your activities to get to a risk profile that is appropriate for your current moment in time. The market reacts predictably – the stock falls like a rock on the fears, perhaps from $40 to $20. May the odds be ever in your favor. Please note that while we value your input, we cannot respond to every message. These help you move the mean to the right, but they don’t help with uncertainty much – the chance of failure (going to zero) doesn’t reduce. Please enter the email address that you use to login to, and we'll email you instructions to reset your password. We estimate these chances, and some of us are better than others; we look at the data, ask for advice, look for prior examples. Usually, when the odds are against you, they’re in the favor of another. Yes you could say it in a different way. I'm Alex Weinstein, SVP of Growth at Grubhub. I never thought much about good luck, fate, cosmic gambling, or any of that sort until I was 7 years old. Let’s geek out a bit and visualize this scenario using a probability density function: What are the activities that can reduce the variance – that is, increase the certainty of the outcome? If I had been absent or late it may have never happened. If they aren’t, the company’s stock should be worth $40, maybe $50 a year from now, as you expected. How do you apply this principle to everyday life? What does it mean? It’s something that would be said even in this day and age … Before a test, before confrontation, before a tragedy, before anything with risk, I hope that fate is on my side. I pray for it every single day. It was such a small event, a seat movement that altered my life. Effie Trinket announces these words at the Reaping, where two children from each of twelve districts are chosen to die in tribute to an oppressive Capitol. What are some of the activities that can improve your valuation? I wouldn’t be who I am without my now best friend. Which of your works would you like to tell your friends about? Try to reduce variance, not just improve the mean. When something is in your favor, it means to be to your advantage. If you have a suggestion about this website or are experiencing a problem with it, or if you need to report abuse on the site, please let us know. If the allegations are true, the stock is worth $0. May the odds be ever in your favor I can understand why it sounds somewhat peculiar, but you need to consider the meaning. Note: There are two ways of spelling this word. We are hard-wired to estimate the chances – and to over-value potential loss over potential gain, and over-value action over allowing things to proceed on their own. Definition of May the odds be ever in your favor. Favor is used in American English and Favourin British English. It doesn’t matter how many times we ask for good chances, it will surprise us anyway. It is what it is. Imagine you’re an entrepreneur that’s in the early stages of your venture, and you’re aiming to raise money at a valuation of $10M. If it was meant to be then it will happen, if it wasn’t then it won’t. You guess its value based on your knowledge of the company, that is, you say “I think it’ll be at $50.” Based on this prediction, you buy the stock.

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